It’s likely that the Fed cuts interest rates when the S&P 500 is within 2% of its all-time high (based on the prior day’s close before the cut).
When this has happened, the index was higher one year later in 20 out of 20 instances, with an average return of 13.9%.
If this pattern holds, it would be enough for the S&P 500 to reach at least 7,516 points by September 2026.
