Since 1950, in 37 years the S&P 500 closed below December's low in the following first quarter, and 37 times it didn't close below.
This is one of the best indicators of how the year will go and also was a clue that in 2022 it was in trouble.
It rose on average 18.8% and higher 94.6% of the time when the low wasn't violated (as in 2024). However, when the low was violated, it averaged -0.2% negative, holding steady.
