The optimistic outlook for this election year gains momentum when we look at the market performance history. In 2022, a midterm year, we saw a dip in stocks. However, it's interesting to note that over the past 17 years, all pre-election and election periods following a challenging midterm year have resulted in positive returns. This consistent pattern suggests the possibility of achieving 18 out of 18 by the end of this year.
Furthermore, the analysis of having a Democratic or Republican president reveals relatively limited impacts on market returns. Regardless of the party affiliation of the occupant of the White House, the history indicates the market's resilience.
In summary, both the favorable history after midterm years and the apparent market independence from the president's political orientation suggest a solid foundation for optimism regarding the current election scenario.
Election years have never been lower after a midterm election year
January 21, 2024
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