The historical seasonality of the months of October, November, and December can be a fascinating source of insights for investors, both in the traditional market and in the fluctuations of Bitcoin. September, as a characteristic, is generally a turbulent month for risk markets, often characterized by significant declines or a notable lack of volatility. But what happens after this challenging month is often a subject of great interest.
Focusing on Bitcoin, we observe that, from 2013 to 2022, only in three years did Bitcoin manage to close the month of September with positive gains. In 2015, it recorded a modest increase of 2.52%, while in 2016, the growth was even more notable, with an increase of 5.94%. Finally, in 2023, a pleasant surprise, the month of September achieved a gain of 3.99%.
However, the overall average for these years up to this point remained in negative territory, with an average of -4.91%.
The turn to the fourth quarter, which covers the months of October, November, and December, is generally awaited with great anticipation by investors. Concerning Bitcoin, history shows that, within the same period from 2013 to 2022, in the months of October, only the years 2014 and 2018 closed in the red, with drops of -12.7% and -4.67%, respectively. The average gains up to this point are 21.8%.
A noteworthy curiosity is that from 2018 to 2022, the months of November and December were not particularly good for Bitcoin. However, turning our attention back to the earlier period from 2014 to 2017, these months proved to be extremely positive. This type of seasonal analysis can provide valuable information for investors seeking to make informed decisions about how to allocate their resources during the last quarter of the year.
Thus, looking at the past helps us understand seasonal trends and prepares us for possible scenarios that may unfold in the market, allowing us to make more informed decisions regarding our investments, whether in the traditional market or in the exciting world of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
